Wednesday, October 03, 2007

2007 MLB Postseason

There are few things in sports better than postseason baseball. It is always entertaining. This year's postseason is a bit difficult to predict. No team clearly stands out like one seems to every year. There is a good balance in each division this year. I wanted to give my thoughts on what happens.

New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Indians - Mark my words, the winner of the World Series will come out of this series. I'm not sure which just yet. I would pick the Indians just to aggrivate my roommate, but I don't know if I can just yet. There's positives and negatives for both, and they are usually the same thing. Yes, the pitching combo of Sabathia and Carmona is great, but Sabathia is 1-7 vs. the Yanks with an ERA of over 7. At the same time, I don't trust the starting pitching for the Yankees. Wang has been the only truely consistant pitcher this year. Clemens hasn't been anything special this year (just 6-6 with an ERA of 4.18), Mussina blew up and may not be able to pull it back together. Even their rookie they call "The Future" Phil Hughes has an ERA of nearly 4.5. Wang and Pettite are their best chances. Now, that's not to say that the bullpen isn't pretty darn good with rookie sensation Joba Chamberlain, Vizcaino, and the Sandman. The key for the Yankees is going to again this year be pitching and A-Rod. In his last 57 postseason plate apperances, A-Rod has had 0 RBIs and 0 HR. That has got to change, and I think it can this year. A-Rod this year is the reason they are in the playoffs. In the past, he hasn't been so much, but his stellar performance in the regular season got them there. A-Rod can win it for them and he can lose it for them. This series will certainly go the 5 game stretch.

Boston Red Sox vs. L.A. Angels - A little while back I would have given this series to the Angels, but things have changed. The Angels have been a pretty good postseason team in recent history, usually giving the Yankees trouble, but coming into this postseason, they are hurting. While they do have that one great ace in Lackey, other problems hurt them. Gary Matthews is out. That takes away a good bit of power from this lineup, which is what has won them games in the past. Vlad can't play in the field, and the man has a cannon in right field. Not only that, but Bartolo Colon can't play for the Angels. There's a lot going against the Halos right now. The Sox share the best record in baseball with the Indians. Their pitching is pretty good. Dice-K trailed off and didn't do as well as expected, but Beckett is the man-child on the mound. He's a tremendous pitcher. They've also got Schilling, who's been to the big game before and can still pitch. On top of that they have Papelbon, who is a great closer. But some of their pitching staff tends to give up runs at poor times (i.e. their regular season series vs. the Yankees). Just keep in mind, while the Sox have the best record in baseball, the team with the best regular season record has only won the Series ONCE in the past 17 years... and it was the '98 Yankees...

Chicago Cubs vs. Arizona Diamondbacks - The Diamondbacks own the best record in the NL. The Cubs own the worst record out of any team in the postseason. They had to scrap to win the division against a Milwaukee that folded at the end of the year and a Cardinals team that was heavily injured. Both of these teams rely heavily on their pitching to win ballgames. The Cubs blew a lot of leads with their pitching this season, but still have a better bullpen than last year. The Diamondbacks though have done an excellent job of bullpen management. According to an article in the New York Times, Manager Bob Melvin has put his best relievers in when they have had a lot of leverage and vice versa, winning them a lot of games. Here's what will probably happen: Zambrano will do awful and start a fight in the dugout, while the rookies will keep out-pitching the Cubs' "ace" pitcher. Ramirez and Lee will get a few big hits here and there, but nothing too special. Because of the great pitching management by the D-Backs, it will give them an advantage in what's sure to be a low-scoring series. Keep in mind, the best hitters on the Cubs are righties. The best pitchers on the D-Backs... also righties.

Colorado Rockies vs. Philadelphia Phillies - This matchup is pretty interesting. The Rockies are coming off the second best stretch in MLB history to make it to the playoffs, winning 14 of their last 15. They also just defeated the Padres in probably the best tiebreaker game in history. The Rockies have been used to putting up big numbers in the thin air of Coors Field. They've got Matt Holiday, who might be the MVP of the NL, Todd Helton, and 3 other guys batting in the .290 to .300 range that all have at least 24 HRs and 99 RBIs. That's pretty impressive. They are on a roll, and could continue, but they come up against a team that has been even better offensively. The Phillies have 3 MVP candidates on their team in the young phenom Ryan Howard, Jimmy Rollins, and Chase Utley. So, with that said, every game could end up 12-10. The Rockies have the slight edge in defense, but the Phillies offense could prove to be too strong for what is an uncertain Rockies rotation.

My Predictions:
Yankees over Indians in 5
Red Sox over Angels in 4
Diamondbacks over Cubs in 3
Phillies over Rockies in 4

Divisional Championships:
Yankees over Red Sox in 4
Phillies over Diamondbacks in 4

World Series:
Yankees over Phillies in 6

I had a tough time choosing between the Yanks and Indians, but I gave A-Rod and the Yanks the benefit of the doubt. Let me know what you think!

1 comments:

Jason said...

I'm with you all the way with the exception of Cleveland. Thus, I'm picking them to win it all. The truth of the matter is that the 4 best clubs are all in the AL. In fact, you could make a case that a couple of other AL teams are better than all the NL teams in the playoffs...well, at least I'd take Detroit over these other clubs. I think Philly and Colorado shapes up to be a great series; lots of offense, although the best pitcher for either team, Cole Hamels, will make the difference in Philly winning. Otherwise, there'll be plenty of fireworks.

I also agree about Holliday as the MVP. You could make a strong case for Jimmy Rollins, too, but Holliday's numbers are just too tough to argue with.

I don't know why everybody loves the Cubs to win that series. Does anybody besides the two of us realize that the D-Backs have the best record in the NL? Mark my words, if it weren't for the ridiculous love affair America has with the "lovable losers" from Chicago, nobody'd be picking them. If you took the same club and put Pirates jerseys on them, everybody'd be picking the D-Backs to sweep. Ridiculous. I hate the Cubs.