LUCKY not GUTSY

It's been a crazy year in college football. There have been so many upsets this year and I have never been so unconvinced about the #1 team in the polls. One of the most nail-biting games this year was this past Saturday's LSU-Auburn game. LSU beat Auburn 30-24 in the last seconds of the game. In case you missed it, here it is:



Here's what I want to say about this particular play: Les Miles was lucky not gutsy for this play. I'm tired of hearing people praise Les Miles for this moment of "divine insight" by deciding to go for it instead of kicking the field goal. It was not a great call. The only reason people are praising him is because it worked. You mean to tell me that if he decided to go for the field goal and the kicker missed it that people would be saying "Miles is an idiot for kicking the field goal. He should have let the offense stay on the field and snap it with under 10 seconds and go for the end zone."? No. People would crucify the kicker for missing it, not screaming at Miles for going with the smart, safe play.

Going for that was not bright by any means; it was down right idiotic. Ask any coach in America what he would have done with anywhere from 40 to 10 seconds left in the 4th quarter on the Auburn 22, one timeout remaining, on 3rd and 7, and down by ONE point. They would have kicked the field goal. And don't say "Well, Jake, that's why your blogging about it and he's on the field coaching on Saturdays". What, because I'm not head coach of a division I football team means I can't have logic and criticize a decision made when it comes to football? The same thing could be said about your very statement. And don't make the arguement, "Well, it worked, so you can't argue with that". Yes I can. My arguement is not that the play didn't work. It obviously did. My arguement is that it is not, I repeat, not an intelligent playcalling decision. Here's why:

Three things can happen when you pass the football and two of them are bad. Watch the video clip again. The cornerback was in position to make the play and he just didn't. Think of what could have gone wrong. The pass is incomplete, time runs out. Flynn gets sacked, time runs out or you're backed up even further from a field goal try even if there is time left on the clock. The pass is intercepted, game over. The receiver isn't open, Flynn wastes time trying to find an open reciever. Too many things could have gone wrong in that situation, a lot moreso than deciding to kick a field goal.

Sure, some of these things could still result in stopping the clock with time on it to kick a field goal. But look at it this way. The play clock was started with :30 left. The play before was over and there were :41 left on the clock. If you put your field goal unit on the field at the end of the play, the chance is that Tuberville calls a timeout to ice the kicker. Time is stopped. Even if he doesn't, you have time to line up and attempt the kick. If there's a bad snap, you fall on it and use your timeout. If it's blocked and you recover it, you can still call timeout and kick it again. The odds of a kicker making his kick are a lot better than completing that pass.

The so called "great playcalling" of Les Miles is nothing but a defiance of football logic. The smart, statistical play is to kick the field goal. Don't tell me that Miles is a genius for letting Flynn make the play, because it was without a doubt 100% lucky.

Please, if anyone reads this blog, post a comment with your opinion.